Well, after these latest primaries it seems obvious to me that it will be Obama versus McCain. Hillary could still be a spoiler, but with every loss that becomes less and less a possibility. Still a possibility though so don’t count her nasty, evil ass out. The woman will do whatever it takes to win, make no mistake about it.
McCain is the guy. Huckabee is just hanging in because he is stubborn.
So where does that leave us. Well, in a head to head match-up, without a VP nominee, I would give the advantage slightly to Obama, but only slightly.
McCain will get the conservatives. Yeah, yeah they will bitch and moan, but in the end they will pull the lever for him, especially since the option is one of the most liberal senators ever, and one who is woefully unqualified for the job to boot. And McCain would get plenty of independents because of his maverick status and some conservative Democrats both because of Obama’s liberalism/inexperience and some reluctance to vote for a black man.
Yep, that is what I said. Some - I don’t know how many - will be reluctant to vote for a black man. Especially a very liberal black man. And if they have McCain as the alternative, who has a ton of experience, is a war hero, and who is again the maverick, then I see them voting for him, not Obama.
So in a head to head, while I would give the slight advantage to Obama simply because of his “inspiration” factor, since he has nothing else, I would say McCain could still win, and maybe win big, if he is successful in pointing out that Obama is nothing but inspiration.
Obama’s policies - weak on defense, ignorant on foreign policy, higher taxes, too liberal on domestic matters - can be successfully attacked by McCain, if he does it carefully. And by careful I mean he has to do it without appearing to be picking on the black guy.
You think I am wrong or bad or politically incorrect by talking about him being black?
Puhlease, this election is about many things but one of them is definitely race.
Obama is black and that is one - one I said - of the reasons he is doing so well now in the Dem race. But it is also one of the reasons he could do less-well in the general election.
And if it happens, don’t blame it on racist conservatives. Conservatives are not going to vote for Obama because he is a liberal. No other reason is needed. That is enough.
No, if anyone votes against him because of his race it will be Democrats. Bet on that. But enough to make a difference? Who knows.
Anyway, that would be in a head to head match-up.
You still have to consider their VP choices. McCain has to pick a popular conservative to fill his ticket. Someone younger than him, but not so young as to look Dan Qualye-ish and not so conservative to scare off independents and conservative Democrats, while at the same time helping him with real conservatives.
Quite a trick, but doable.
Obama? I don’t think it will be Hillary. Too much anger there and nothing in it really for her. Or for him really.
So I have no clue who he could pick. Not a woman I think. Not another minority. Some liberal white guy who has some experience. But how much? Could he be older than Obama? I don’t think so. That would be too Dick Cheney-ish. (Yes, I used “ish” twice in this post - sue me.)
So I have no clue who it might be, but I do know his pick may be harder and mean more to his campaign than McCain’s. It could win or lose it for him.
I can’t wait to find out who it might be.
Anyway, to sum up. I think it is Obama against McCain and if it were held today Obama could win by a slight margin. Might win.
But after a few months of hammering him on his policies that should change.
If, again, McCain can do it without picking on the black guy.
Not an easy thing to do since the Dems will say that is exactly what he is doing every moment of every day.
So it will be a challenge for McCain to beat the new Messiah.
Here’s hoping he can pull it off.
UPDATE:
Here’s an interesting take from a guy who actually knows politics unlike me.
No one can quite decide (the polls favor Obama) whether Clinton or Obama is the tougher opponent for McCain. Contrary to popular wisdom, I think Obama is the weaker candidate in the general election for a number of reasons: One, there is less chance that Hillary would accept the VP and unify the party (Obama just might accept a VP to get the requisite experience and stature for the next run);Two, so far his repertoire is limited to the brilliant set “change” speech and repartee in debates, but we have no idea how he will sound when asked for specifics in ex tempore occasions;
Three, his high-profile wife Michelle, being bright, educated, confident, but completely without experience in reacting to criticism or counter-argument, is a loose cannon, and so are some of his staunchest supporters (who wants a Moveon.org (”General Betray Us”) endorsement? or the support of his “black value system” church?);
Four, moderates and independents are surprised that the non-race candidate has been winning overwhelming block racial support. One might have expected Obama, in a race against the liberal wife of the first ‘black’ President to garner 50 percent or 60 percent of the African-American vote, but not 80 percent. That disparity might in itself prompt a like counter-reaction among whites, Latinos, and Asians that legitimizes voters taking into consideration race — as Hillary’s surrogate Gov. Rendell, in perfect Clintonian fashion, has just “suggested.”
He does talk about that “black” thing I mentioned, though, doesn’t he?
